Ask a color blind person to spell "red" and "green", then ask them how many red apples are on the table.
LLMs work on tokens. They literally cannot see individual letters. Yet, unlike humans, they can instantly create a tool to solve this task for them and never be stumped by it again.
Gurven, Michael & Hillard Kaplan (2007). “Longevity Among Hunter-Gatherers: A Cross-Cultural Examination.” Population and Development Review, 33(2), 321–365
If you made it past age 5 as a hunter-gatherer you’d likely live to 50-60 years of age.
It’s also worth noting that, while this is (I think) likely the most cited paper on the topic, all the observed societies are from the 20th century. So we can’t necessarily extrapolate from that that hunter-gatherers 300,000 years ago fared the same.
Yet the market can remain irrational for much longer than we can reason about.
The numbers are, as you (and Ed Zitron) point out, bananas, and the financial house of cards will collapse -- but there is enough fin-de-siecle chaos happening right now that anything is possible.
AI seems to be particularly useful in murdering people, so, for example, if there were another globe-wide hot war, it isn't clear to me that Altman et al don't virally weave themselves into the DNA of the state, both in the USA and in its adversaries.
In which case, the "bezzle" continues until the state collapses, whenever that is (depends who wins the war ;D)
The original sin of any modern forecast is proceeding from reason and sensibility. Now is the hour of the batshit.
> Yet the market can remain irrational for much longer than we can reason about.
It's already overdue.
> it isn't clear to me that Altman et al don't virally weave themselves into the DNA of the state, both in the USA and in its adversaries.
In the USA? Maybe. In its adversaries? Definitely no. Thanks to Trump's "Make America Negligible Again" campaign being extremely successful.
Adversaries and enemies alike, no exception, nobody trusts US any more, so everyone is already building their own stuff to get independent ASAP. Tech-bros have already lost their influence outside of the US.
This is because it is valley jargon and we are all saturated with it. You may not have heard it before, but it is structurally close to similar concepts, eg "frontier model", that you got there without noticing.
It was still shit tier comms for communicating with the whole planet, but yes, for the inner loop, it was succinct and clear.
Valley jargon isn't a nerd vs jock thing these days, and hasn't been for a good while. It's more quasi-intellectual sophistry sprinkled with tech vocabulary.
The bicycle -- a simple method of transport powered entirely by humans -- used analogically to prove a point about [clears throat] automation.
I think this sounds somewhat less silly in English because "automotive" and "automative" don't have the same hyper-visible affinity, but all the same; you may want to consider the car as a more viable analogand.
*breaks, and also, your conclusion ignores the words typed by the article's author in the piece you presumably read, where it is reported that Astra did it mostly on its own.
Therefore Astra could also have done this comment better
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